Karine Silva has opened as a -250 favorite against Gabriella Fernandes for UFC Vegas 124, a women’s flyweight bout scheduled for Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Fernandes comes in at +200, leaving Silva with the clearer path in the market even though both fighters arrive after losses.
That search interest is easy to understand. Silva and Fernandes are both ranked in the women’s flyweight division, and the odds frame this as more than a coin flip. Silva earned her UFC place through Dana White’s Contender Series in October 2021, while Fernandes entered as a former LFA champion and has split six UFC matches since her February 2023 octagon debut.
Silva’s recent run helps explain the number. She has won two of her last five bouts, beating Ariane Lipski da Silva and Dione Barbosa, while falling to Viviane Araujo, Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Fernandes has also shown she can win at this level, with victories over Carli Judice, Wang Cong and Julija Stoliarenko, but she has also lost to Jasudavicius, Tereza Bleda and Casey O’Neill.
The matchup still carries a clear split in style. Silva is being priced as the favorite despite both women coming off defeats, and she brings the stronger grappling resume as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt holder. Fernandes is dangerous on the feet and has enough power to make the striking exchanges matter, which is why the fight is not being treated as a comfortable spot for Silva even with the odds leaning her way.
One prediction from the preview calls for Silva to win by decision over Fernandes in three rounds. That is the most likely outcome the market is pointing toward, but Saturday will decide whether Silva can turn the favorite’s tag into another step forward, or whether Fernandes can turn a live underdog price into a statement win.
