The Memphis Grizzlies are being backed to cover against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, Nov. 6, even though the Thunder are favored and carrying a two-game win streak. The spread has been posted at 3.5 points, but the preview has already pushed it down to 2.5.
That search interest is being driven by a matchup between two of the winningest teams in the Western Conference and by the price attached to it. Memphis is at home, and the Grizzlies are getting points despite a profile that includes 15.8 made three-pointers per game, a 40% mark from deep and a league-best 49.5 rebounds per game.
Ty Jerome is the name carrying the Thunder side of the handicap. He is averaging 27.4 points per game, has scored 20 or more points five times through seven games, and already owns two 40-point performances. His three-point shot has also traveled with him, with 6.9 attempts per game and 3 or more made threes in three of seven games, while he has gone 7-of-16 from beyond the arc across his last two outings.
That production matters because Oklahoma City is asking more from its scoring options while Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are out. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has answered with volume, taking 61 shots across his last two games and scoring 85 total points while adding 16 assists, and the Thunder still beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in back-to-back games. But the recent numbers around the team are not spotless: over the last five games, Oklahoma City has given up 116.2 points per game, opponents have shot 38% from three, and they have faced 42.4 attempts from beyond the arc per game while allowing 15.3 makes.
Memphis, meanwhile, is built to make a favored team work. The Grizzlies are second in the league in three-pointers made at 15.8 per game, and they are the only team shooting 40% from beyond the arc. That outside shot volume pairs with the rebounding edge, which is why a home underdog tag does not read as a throwaway line here. The team has dropped two straight, but the line movement suggests the market is treating the absence list in Oklahoma City as the main factor.
That leaves Friday’s game with a simple question attached to it: whether the Thunder’s recent surge and Gilgeous-Alexander’s workload can outweigh the missing bodies and Memphis’s balance. The betting call leans toward the Grizzlies staying inside the number, and the game will be the first real answer.
