Paul LePage is running against Matthew Dunlap in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, a race that has become the state’s most competitive contest as live results are counted. The former Republican governor is trying to win the seat Democrats now hold, while voters in the Pine Tree State wait for the next batch of numbers.
The race matters now because Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is retiring, leaving an open seat in a district Republicans believe they can flip. That belief rests on the district’s red-leaning profile, even though this is still the hardest-fought contest in Maine. LePage, a former Republican governor, faces Dunlap, the Democratic state auditor, in a matchup that gives both parties a clear test of strength.
The expected vote number will be the total count NBC News expects once all votes are in. NBC News says that estimate is built from several factors, including how many ballots were cast early and information passed to vote reporters on Election Day by county election officials. The figure can change as NBC News gathers more information, which is why the number may move during live coverage rather than settle at once.
That live count also shows the shape of the race itself. Republicans are hopeful because the district leans red, but the seat is still the one Democrats and Republicans are watching most closely in Maine. The contradiction is plain: a district that favors one side on paper can still produce the closest race in the state when an open seat and a strong challenger are both in play.
The next question is not who is in the race. It is whether the expected vote keeps climbing toward a final total that can settle it. With data provided by The and projections made by the NBC News Decision Desk, the result will turn on how much of the vote remains to be counted and whether LePage’s hopes match the numbers as they come in.
