Officials in Archuleta County and the Town of South Fork ordered mandatory evacuations Sunday as Pagosa Springs flooding worsened and the San Juan River was forecast to rise higher than first expected. People in low-lying areas around Pagosa Springs were told to leave immediately, with the river now expected to crest as early as 6 p.m. Sunday.
The warning carries real weight because the latest forecast put the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs near 19.71 feet, nearly 2 feet above the 17.8 feet reached in the 1911 flood. The National Weather Service kept a flood warning in effect through Monday evening and tagged it as a Particularly Dangerous Situation, a signal that the threat was not routine and that conditions could turn quickly.
The evacuation zone is broad. The emergency message said anyone inside it must leave now, including all low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo and Piedra rivers. Pagosa Springs was also set to close to incoming traffic at 2 p.m. Sunday, while traffic would still be allowed to leave. Open Door Church at 110 Trinity Lane in Pagosa Springs was being used as an evacuation shelter.
But the most troubling part of the response is what officials said they could not do while the worst of the storm was unfolding. Helicopters would be grounded, first responders may not be able to reach people in danger until conditions improve, and officials said the response during the peak of the storm would be extremely limited. Crews were pre-positioning resources in high-risk areas, and additional help was expected to arrive Sunday, but the message was unmistakable: people in the evacuation zones needed to get out before roads, air support and access became unreliable.
The situation also echoes the 1911 flood, when the river crested at about 17.8 feet and devastated the town. This time, the forecast pointed even higher, with the crest potentially nearing the level of the historic benchmark by Sunday evening. For residents still deciding whether to go, the open question is not whether the water is rising, but whether they will be able to leave before the storm makes that choice for them.
