Toronto FC can still drag itself into the Eastern Conference playoff fight with a win over D.C. United on Wednesday, but a loss in its final home game of the regular season could end the chase on the spot. D.C. United comes to BMO Field for Matchday 33 knowing it is also staring at elimination pressure, with both clubs running out of time in the 2026 MLS regular season.
Toronto FC is 8-11-12 with 36 points and sits 11th in the Eastern Conference, two spots and three points behind the New York Red Bulls, who hold the ninth and final playoff berth. A victory would move Toronto into a tie for ninth and keep its path alive. D.C. United, at 7-12-12 and 13th, is three points behind Toronto and can be eliminated by a loss, while a draw would also knock it out if the New York Red Bulls win at the New England Revolution.
That is why Wednesday has become more than just another late-season match. There are only three matches left in the campaign, and the playoff picture could shift across the conference by the end of the night. Six teams could clinch a postseason spot and seven could be eliminated, leaving Toronto and D.C. United among the clubs trying to keep their seasons from slipping away before the calendar turns.
Toronto’s route is simple in one sense and punishing in another. Win, and the club stays alive with everything still in front of it. Draw, and it would need to win away to Atlanta United on Nov. 1 and the Philadelphia Union on Nov. 7 to have any realistic shot at finishing in the top nine. That is a difficult ask for a team carrying one of the worst road records in MLS this year at 3-9-3, and it helps explain why the margin for error has shrunk to almost nothing.
The stakes are sharpened by how little room Toronto has had for momentum under Robin Fraser. Since the start of the 2025 season, his team has managed back-to-back wins only once, a reminder that the club has struggled to turn promising stretches into something lasting. Even so, Fraser said these are the kind of moments players remember for a long time because the season is on a knife’s edge, and he stressed the need to understand the size of the occasion without being overwhelmed by it.
The urgency has also been plain in the dressing room. Josh Sargent called Wednesday “a final for us, basically,” and said Toronto has to push from the first whistle because the challenge will not be easy. Theo Corbeanu echoed that feeling after last weekend’s road loss to the Columbus Crew, saying there are three games left and that if Toronto can play its best football, finish on a high and keep its belief, it can still put itself in a respectable position.
What happens next depends on whether Toronto can make Wednesday count. A win would keep the club alive heading into two road games that still offer a route forward. Anything less, and the final home date of the regular season could be remembered as the night Toronto’s playoff hopes slipped out of reach.
