Kody Steele will enter UFC 333 on Saturday as a slight betting favorite over Noah Gugnon, with the lightweight matchup set for Etihad Arena on Yas Island, UAE. Steele is listed at -165, while Gugnon opens at +140, a line that gives the fight a clear early favorite but still leaves room for an upset if the underdog can slow the pressure.
The market is tracking Steele for a reason. He is coming off a bounce-back win after losing to Rongzhu, and he has split his first two UFC bouts with that defeat and a win over Dom Mar Fan. Gugnon has made a fast rise of his own, winning his UFC promotional debut at UFC Belgrade and then submitting Milos Janicic in the first round in August.
That contrast is what makes the fight interesting beyond the numbers. Both men are known as grapplers with Brazilian jiu-jitsu backgrounds, yet the expectation is that this one could open up on the feet instead of turning into a prolonged mat battle. Steele earned his UFC contract by beating Chasen Blair on Dana White's Contender Series in October 2024, and he entered that path as an undefeated prospect. Gugnon, meanwhile, had already built his name as an Ares FC standout before the UFC brought him in earlier in the year.
Analyst Anatoly Pimentel expects Steele to win by decision because of his pressure and forward movement, saying Steele is the more aggressive fighter and that style makes opponents uncomfortable before it breaks them. He also questioned whether Gugnon, who is still relatively young, has enough experience to handle that kind of constant pace. That prediction fits the betting line, but it also leaves the key question hanging over Saturday: whether Gugnon’s submission threat can force Steele off his usual rhythm before the favorite’s pressure takes over.
