Golden State is being backed to cover a 4.5-point spread against Memphis on Friday night at Chase Center, with the game set for just after 10 p.m. ET on Oct. 23. The wager leans on the Warriors at home even after their 127-105 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday.
The number matters because Golden State was priced as a short home favorite, with the line playable up to -6.5. That gives bettors a little room if they still want the Warriors at home, where the expectation is that Steph Curry and the 3-point shot can carry more weight than they did in Wednesday’s loss.
The confidence in Golden State also comes from a preseason gap that was larger than the one on the board now. The Warriors were projected to win eight more games than Memphis before the season, while the Lakers were expected to win seven more games than Golden State. That kind of gap helps explain why a home line of -4.5 is getting attention even after an ugly result in L.A.
Ty Jerome is part of the angle, and his recent form gives that pick some life. He went 5-for-10 from deep against Utah on Wednesday, and last season he made 3+ threes in eight of 15 games. Draymond Green is the other name attached to the matchup market, after he finished with eight assists against the Lakers and recorded 6+ assists in 29 of 41 games last season when he played at least 27 minutes.
Still, this is not a clean setup for Golden State. Memphis is being described as the NBA's youngest team, while Golden State is the NBA's third-oldest roster, and the visitors are expected to bring Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey inside against an undersized frontcourt. That is the piece that can make a home cover harder than the line suggests, especially if the Warriors do not generate the same shot volume they need to keep pace.
For now, the market is pointing one way: Golden State -4.5, with Ty Jerome and Draymond Green props attached to the same game. The only thing left is whether the Warriors can turn a home bounce-back spot into a cover before the clock gets much past 10 p.m. ET.
