Kathy Hochul is holding a 12-point lead over Bruce Blakeman in a new New York likely-voter poll released by Emerson College Polling and PIX11 News, putting her at 52% to his 40%. Eight percent of voters were undecided in the October 3-5 survey of 900 likely voters, which carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 points.
The polling result gives the race a fresh number for readers tracking the New York governor debate, and it does so at a moment when the underlying coalition looks split in a way that matters. Spencer Kimball said Hochul’s lead rests on 84% support among New York Democrats, but independents went the other way, favoring Blakeman 55% to 34%. That divide explains how Hochul can be ahead overall while still losing ground with a bloc that often decides close statewide contests.
The poll’s method also matters. The sample was weighted by gender, education, party registration and region, and the survey used MMS text-to-web interviews along with additional panel interviews. That makes the topline more than a quick snapshot; it is a structured look at where voters stood in early October, when the race was still moving and neither side had locked down the middle.
What complicates the picture is that Hochul’s advantage is not built on broad comfort with her record. Her job approval was 40%, with 46% disapproval and 15% neutral, a balance that leaves room for Blakeman to argue the electorate is still open to change. The poll also showed a notable contrast with earlier Emerson statewide polling this cycle, where independents had generally favored the Democratic candidate rather than breaking for the Republican.
So the immediate answer is clear: Hochul is ahead now, but the race is not settled in the place that usually decides New York contests. If independents keep siding with Blakeman while Democrats stay locked in behind Hochul, the race will hinge on which side can move the voters in the middle before Election Day.
