The Edmonton Oilers opened as road favorites over the Anaheim Ducks for Wednesday’s 10 p.m. ET game at the Honda Center, a market position built on stronger five-on-five play and a goaltending setup that points to Devon Levi. Levi stopped 19 of 20 shots in his latest start and finished with 0.68 goals saved above expected, giving Edmonton a steady last line as the matchup arrived.
That is why this game is drawing attention now. Edmonton enters with a 55.7 Corsi For percentage and a 55.1 expected goals percentage at five-on-five, while Anaheim sits 29th in Corsi For percentage and 23rd in expected goals percentage. The Ducks have still banked an eighth-ranked 105.6 PDO to start the year, and Lukas Dostal’s.918 save percentage has helped that early edge hold up.
The question is how much of that can last. Dostal’s.918 mark is well above his.897 save percentage over the past three seasons, so the early numbers on Anaheim’s side carry some regression risk. Edmonton’s case is built on the other end of the ice, where it has allowed the fourth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes and has leaned on a top line that has produced. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin have been on the ice for 5.9 expected goals per 60 minutes, and Podkolzin has found the scoresheet in three straight games to start the year.
Draisaitl has also opened quickly, scoring three times through three games while producing 1.99 individual expected goals and six high-danger scoring chances. Since the beginning of the 2024-25 campaign, McDavid and Draisaitl have been on the ice for 7.76 goals per 60 minutes and 6.62 expected goals per 60 minutes, numbers that explain why Edmonton is being priced like the stronger side even on the road. Jackson LaCombe’s 38.0 CF% and 33.9 xGF% at five-on-five show how much pressure Anaheim’s blue line has absorbed, and his 39.5% of faceoffs in the defensive zone only adds to that burden.
Levi’s latest start gives Edmonton a clean way to absorb the matchup, but the larger edge still comes from structure. The Oilers have covered the puck line in 13 of their last 20 games, and the projection leans on that same mix of territorial control and top-end finishing. When the puck drops at the Honda Center, the market will be asking whether Anaheim’s early save rate can keep outrunning its underlying numbers — or whether Edmonton’s stronger five-on-five profile decides Oilers vs. Ducks the way the data says it should.
