Shota Imanaga takes the ball tonight for the Chicago Cubs with a season that has already included 34 home runs allowed, and that number hangs over a matchup with the Braves at Wrigley Field. The Cubs need him to keep the ball in the park because this game comes at a time when both clubs can picture October.
That is why people are looking at Mauricio Dubón now, even in a game where he is not the starter on the mound: the Braves and Cubs keep turning up in conversations about the postseason, and this one feels like a test run. The Braves have a 5.5-game lead and have been positioned as the division leader since opening day, while the Cubs have spent much of the season in control of the first Wild Card spot.
The matchup also carries a simple baseball problem for Chicago. The Cubs have given up more homers than any other staff in the National League, and Imanaga has been part of that issue even while his season has not looked the same from month to month. He had a stellar July, struggled in August and has been good so far in September, which is the part that makes this start hard to pin down. The long-ball damage is real, but so is the recent improvement.
He has already seen Atlanta once this season and gave up just two earned runs, so the Braves are not stepping into this as an unfamiliar opponent. That matters because the Cubs’ pitching staff has been their biggest weakness all year, with injuries and poor performances making every strong start feel necessary. A night game at Wrigley Field can change the shape of a matchup, but it cannot hide a season-long trend for long.
JR Ritchie brings his own uneven line into the game, at 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP for the season. His 5.13 ERA in night games and 3.06 ERA on the road suggest the Braves have reasons to keep an eye on him too. If Imanaga repeats the form that has made him better in September, the Cubs can keep this from becoming more than a late-season preview. If he does not, the same home-run problem that has followed him all year will be sitting right in the middle of a game the Cubs cannot waste.
