The Dodgers enter Monday night at Great American Ballpark as a 68% moneyline favorite over the Reds, a number that matches the way this game is being framed: one team is arriving hot, the other is trying to stop a slide. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Sept. 14.
That is why the Dodgers vs Reds matchup is drawing attention now. The Dodgers have posted a 125 wRC+ over their last six games and a.225 ISO, while Mookie Betts has supplied two homers in his last six games along with a.389 ISO, 56.3% of his contact in the air, a 43.8% hard-hit rate and an 18.8% barrel rate. For readers looking at form rather than names, that is the edge behind the price.
There is also a clear mismatch on the other side. The Reds lineup has produced a 64 wRC+ over the last week, and the Reds bullpen has a 6.17 FIP with 2.17 HR/9 over that same stretch. Nick Lodolo has carried a 5.73 FIP across his previous two appearances, with 1.69 HR/9 and a 53.6% hard-hit rate, which helps explain why the market has leaned so hard toward Los Angeles.
The pitching framing is where the preview gets messy. Tarik Skubal is described as keeping Cincinnati's cold lineup at bay, and his recent numbers back the idea of a pitcher in control, with a 1.82 FIP, 1.69 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9, a 5.7% barrel rate and a 47.7% ground-ball rate over his last five appearances. But the matchup itself is Dodgers vs Reds, and that leaves a basic question hanging over the write-up: why a Dodgers-Reds game preview is leaning on a pitcher tied to the wrong side of the board.
Conditions in Cincinnati should not get in the way of offense or pitching rhythm, with temperatures around 73 degrees near first pitch, falling into the upper 60s later, clear skies, light 5-6 mph winds and virtually no rain threat. The Dodgers have also hit the Team Total Over in nine of their last 13 games, so the next thing to watch is whether the betting favorite turns that recent form into a routine night, or whether the Reds' slump finally forces the game to look tighter than the number suggests.
