The Braves open a three-game series against the Rays on Tuesday at 7:15 p.m. ET, and the opener puts AJ Smith-Shawver on the mound against Freddy Peralta. For Atlanta, it is a chance to steady a young starter who has not finished five innings in any of his last three outings.
Smith-Shawver enters with a 0-1 record and a 7.13 ERA, and his recent stretch has been rough enough to put his role under a brighter light. Over his last three starts, he allowed 12 runs on 16 hits in 13 1/3 innings. That is the line Atlanta has to improve if it wants the right-hander to look more like the pitcher who posted a 3.86 ERA in nine starts last season before an elbow injury cut that run short.
The matchup matters because the Rays arrive with one of the best records in baseball, sitting a half-game ahead of Atlanta at 85-58 while the Braves are 85-59. Tampa Bay also leads the majors with a.260 batting average, even though its.403 slugging percentage ranks 13th, a reminder that the offense is built more on contact than power. The Rays are also fourth in the majors in starting pitcher ERA at 3.61, which gives Peralta a strong platform in the opener.
There is a twist in the standings and the budget line that makes the series feel even tighter. The Rays are tracking toward a sixth playoff appearance in the last eight years and doing it with a payroll of $107.3 million, good for 23rd in the league, less than half of Atlanta's. That gap has not slowed them, and it leaves the Braves trying to match a club that keeps finding ways to stay near the top without spending like it.
Smith-Shawver's own history offers a little more hope than his recent results. He made one career start against the Rays last April and allowed two runs on six hits over five innings, which is the kind of outing Atlanta would take now if it can get him through the middle innings and hand the rest to the bullpen. The Braves came out of their series against the Phillies having won two of four games on the road and holding a four-game lead in the NL East, so the opener against Tampa Bay is as much about keeping momentum as it is about one start.
Peralta has a different set of numbers to lean on. He is 6-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 11 career appearances, including 10 starts, against the Braves, and he has already faced Atlanta twice earlier this season while with the Mets, allowing two earned runs over 9 2/3 combined innings. The first game of this series will not settle anything, but it will say a lot about whether Smith-Shawver can turn the page quickly enough to matter in the stretch run.
