Qatar said Tuesday it was working with China to restart diplomacy aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could help ease the shipping disruption that has kept oil near $100 a barrel as the war between Iran and the U.S. remains stuck in a stalemate. The effort comes as traders look for any sign that the chokepoint can be opened again without another round of fire in the Middle East.
That is why Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani was in Beijing on Monday for a meeting with China's Minister of Foreign Affairs. Ibrahim Al Hashami said Qatar was working intensively with international partners including China “to resume diplomacy and dialogue and to put forward practical ideas that address the concerns of all parties,” a line that points to how limited the options have become after months of confrontation.
The market concern is not abstract. Over the weekend, Iran and the U.S. exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. military said neither of the two warships targeted by Iranian missiles was impacted. But it also said three Iranian-owned oil tankers were hit and disabled, a reminder that the route’s danger is now being measured ship by ship rather than in speeches or threats.
The standoff sits on top of wider damage across Iran’s own infrastructure. Morteza Dehghan said Monday that 27 airports were damaged during the war, with runways, safety buildings, navigation and inspection equipment, and passenger terminals hit. He said domestic specialists restored air transportation services immediately after the ceasefire and that all international airports, air-border airports and provincial-center airports had returned to operational status, even though several airports and aviation facilities were hit again after the ceasefire.
There is also little sign that the political mood is softening. Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would continue its resistance with full strength until the aggressors are brought to complete regret, while the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned Tuesday that Iran had new missiles capable of targeting U.S. warships and bases in the region. At the same time, China accounts for 45% of Tehran's oil sales, according to a U.S. government report from March, and Beijing has said its business with Tehran is in line with international law and should not be disrupted, which helps explain why Qatar is looking there for leverage.
For now, the best reading is that Qatar and China are trying to open a door that neither side in the war seems ready to walk through. The shipping route is still strained, the oil market is still reacting, and the next real test is whether diplomacy can do what force has not: get the Strait of Hormuz moving again.
