A strong tropical wave that rolled off the African coast was being watched on Aug. 25 as the Atlantic’s next possible tropical depression or tropical storm, with the National Hurricane Center putting its odds of development at 70% by Thursday, Aug. 27. If it strengthens, the system could take the next name on the list: Dolly.
The wave was centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, still more than a week away from any likely effect on land, but already drawing attention because it may become the season’s next named storm during the heart of hurricane season. That is why Atlantic Hurricane Dolly is showing up in searches now: the question is not whether something is out there, but whether it can organize fast enough to matter.
Andy Hazelton said on Aug. 25 that the system could be something to watch if it can survive long-term, though he added there is a lot of uncertainty about whether that will happen. Michael Lowry called it the season’s healthiest tropical wave so far, a sign that the disturbance has enough structure to merit close tracking even before it becomes a depression or storm.
The problem is the environment it has to cross. Lowry said it would be the first system during the peak of the season to run the gauntlet through El Niño’s staunch central Atlantic wall of wind shear, and Hazelton described the main development region of the Atlantic as very hostile this year. Forecast models are divided on whether the wave can survive that formidable shear zone, and the system will also have to fight dry air and shearing winds as it moves westward over the western Atlantic.
That is what keeps the outlook split even with a 70% development chance. Warmer-than-normal water in the Atlantic main hurricane development region and near-record heat in the Gulf of Mexico may help later, but the Gulf’s deeper ocean heat content remains far below normal, and none of that matters if the wave cannot get through the next few days intact. If it does survive, some model runs show it strengthening over the western Atlantic in the early days of September. If it does not, Dolly stays a name on paper.
