The Chicago Cubs are trying to steady a rotation that has started wobbling again, and the timing is bad. Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga have both stumbled in August, leaving the club to wonder how much trust it can place in its expected postseason arms if the games matter most in October.
Boyd, who has already spent two separate stretches on the IL this season and has been limited to 91 total innings, has a 6.12 ERA through four starts in August. He also has a 4.68 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP, a sharp drop from the 3.65 FIP and 1.09 WHIP he posted during his All Star 2025 run. His xERA has climbed to 5.01 from 3.75 last year, and he has given up 14 home runs in 91 innings after allowing 19 in 179.2 innings a season ago. The home-run rate has jumped from 0.95 per nine innings to 1.38, and his pulled flyball rate has moved from 17.7% to 22.9% even as his overall flyball rate sits at 39.3%.
That helps explain why readers are searching his name now. Boyd has given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts, and over those 25 innings he allowed eight home runs, struck out 11 and walked nine. His fastball carried a minus-2.5 run value in that stretch, and Statcast has his heater at minus-5 runs on the season, good for only the 17th percentile. Last year, by contrast, he produced 10 runs of value and ranked in the 86th percentile. A club that had been praised for rotation depth is finding out again how quickly that praise can evaporate when injuries and poor outings pile up.
Imanaga has not offered much relief. He has a 5.68 ERA over his last three starts and was removed early on Sunday against the Mariners after two struggle-heavy innings. Kevin Gausman has also been uneven, with a 6.19 ERA through three starts as a Cub, which is why the most likely four-man postseason rotation is now being framed around Boyd, Gausman, Clay Holmes and Imanaga. Even then, the Cubs may want Colin Rea, Javier Assad and David Peterson ready at a moment's notice, because a rotation that looked deep not long ago now looks fragile at the edges.
That is the hard part for Craig Counsell: the club may still have enough names to fill a playoff staff, but not enough certainty to know who can be trusted when the games tighten. Boyd was the presumed No. 1 starter not long ago. Now he is a reminder that October plans can change fast, and the next outing from him or Imanaga may decide whether the Cubs are choosing among four starters or scrambling for a fifth arm. Jacob Webb holds the Cubs' late innings as Daniel Palencia nears return.
