Dallas gets a chance Tuesday night to make a season milestone count. If the Wings beat the Portland Fire in Arlington, TX at 8 p.m. ET, they will clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2023.
This is a rubber match after the teams split the first two games of the season series, and Dallas has the recent form that usually matters in this spot. The Wings have won and covered two straight, while their home floor has been a real edge: Dallas ranks second in Defensive Rating at home at 100.9 and has allowed only 80.3 points per game there, well below its 85.9 points-per-game mark overall.
The search interest around fire vs wings is not just about the standings. It is also about whether Dallas can keep Portland from turning this into a higher-scoring game. The Fire have covered in six of their last seven, but that run is less impressive when set against the defenses they have seen. Portland has scored the ninth-fewest points on the road at 85.5 per game, and Dallas has been far tougher than that group at home.
Jessica Shepard is a big reason Dallas has reached this point. She has 21 double-doubles, the second-most in the WNBA, and she posted one in both games against Portland while averaging 15.5 points and 14.5 rebounds. That kind of production matters against a team that has allowed the most assists per game this season at 23, because it gives Dallas multiple ways to pressure the Fire without forcing the game into a single scoring lane.
Paige Bueckers adds another layer. She is averaging a career-best 5.8 assists per game, has delivered 6 or more assists in 20 of 36 games overall and in 10 of 17 home games, and has averaged 6.2 assists over her last six outings. With Sania Feagin out for the Fire and Azzi Fudd and Aziaha James out for the Wings, the ball-handling load and the finishing load are still tilted toward the home side’s most reliable creators.
There is one wrinkle that keeps this from feeling automatic. Dallas has hit the Under in five straight games and is 5-13 to the Under at home, which fits a team that has been defending well but not always producing clean, easy scoring runs. That makes the cleanest read even simpler: if the Wings defend at home the way they have been defending, and Shepard and Bueckers keep creating the same pressure they have already shown against Portland, Dallas should get the win that sends it back to the playoffs.
