Voters in California's Bay Area district are choosing between state Sen. Aisha Wahab and BART Board President Melissa Hernandez in a special election to fill the congressional vacancy left by Eric Swalwell in April. The contest is the immediate test of whether Wahab can convert an early lead into a seat in Congress.
Wahab has led both earlier rounds of voting. She finished first on June 2 with 38% of the vote and more than 20 points ahead of Hernandez, then took 43% in the special primary two weeks later while Hernandez got 17%. Because no candidate topped 50% in either race, the two advanced to Tuesday's special election.
That is why Wahab's name keeps drawing attention now. She is the more progressive candidate and has been the frontrunner through much of the campaign, making her the focus of a late-money push that has reshaped the final stretch. Outside groups have spent about $4.1 million since mid-July in the contest, and roughly $3.7 million of that has gone to support Hernandez or attack Wahab.
Much of that money came from groups aligned with AIPAC, turning a local congressional contest into what one major newspaper described as the latest battleground in the ideological fight over the future of the Democratic Party. Wahab has criticized the flood of outside spending, arguing that the race is being overshadowed by forces far beyond the district itself.
What happens next is already set. Wahab and Hernandez will meet again in November for the full two-year term, and that election will use California's new congressional map, although the redistricting changes in District 14 are minor. For now, the question is not whether Wahab led the race into Tuesday; she did. It is whether the final count delivers the result her early advantage seemed to promise.
