Greg MacLean is backing goals again, and this time the play is New York City FC against the Philadelphia Union at Yankee Stadium on Sunday evening. His previous BOTD column landed a winner at Charlotte in the early hours of Sunday morning, which made it five winners from his last six columns before he turned to this MLS meeting in New York.
That search is easy to understand. New York City FC have scored 31 goals across their opening 18 MLS matches and 23 of those have come at home, where they have blanked just once all season. They have also scored two or more in six of their 10 home MLS matches, while their opening 10 home games have averaged 3.80 goals and Over 2.5 Goals has landed in seven of them.
The Philadelphia Union bring a similar case from the road. They have scored 25 goals in their opening 18 MLS matches, 15 of them away from home, and they have failed to score in only one of their previous eight road trips. They have also scored two or more goals in four of their past six away matches, while their opening nine road games have averaged 4.33 goals and Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals has landed in seven of their past eight on the road.
That is why the matchup is being framed around goals rather than control. New York City FC have kept just one clean sheet across their last nine MLS home matches, so the home side are not coming in with a shut-down record. The Philadelphia Union, meanwhile, have yet to register a clean sheet away from home this season and have shipped 24 goals on the road, which leaves little in the numbers to suggest a tight contest built on defensive resistance.
Greg MacLean said he was backing that trend to continue in New York on Sunday evening, and the logic is plain enough. Pascal Jansen's team have the home scoring rate, Ryan Richter's visitors have the road scoring rate, and the figures on both sides keep pointing to the same market. If the match follows those patterns, Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals should be live well before the final whistle.
The only real question is whether those trends collide cleanly on the night or one side finally drags the game out of shape. Based on the numbers, Sunday evening at Yankee Stadium is set up less like a cautious Eastern Conference meeting and more like one of the MLS fixtures where the scoreboard can move fast.
