Matthew Boyd entered Saturday’s Chicago Cubs game against the St. Louis Cardinals with a profile that pointed toward an edge on the mound. He was carrying a 2.37 ERA when top-10 offenses in OPS vs. lefties were removed from the sample, along with a 0.67 HR/9 in that same split, a combination that helped frame the Cubs as the side with the cleaner pitching outlook.
That mattered because the betting board already had the Chicago Cubs at -175, and the club had backed up that price by going 41-28 against sub-.500 teams this season. The Cubs also ranked second in runs per game and sixth in wOBA vs. righties over the past month, which made Boyd’s job look manageable even before the matchup got to the weather.
The cardinals’ side of the picture was less stable. Michael McGreevy came in with a 5.68 xERA, a 3.64 actual ERA and a 6.29 ERA over his last five starts, and the Cubs had already scored seven runs against him the last time he started against them. Todd Cordell summed up the handicap plainly, saying he was on the home team because McGreevy was coming back to earth.
Boyd was not a perfect clean slate, though. He had allowed 1.67 HR/9 at home this season, a reminder that the power suppression in his broader split had not carried over evenly to every setting. That wrinkle mattered on a day when Wrigley was expected to hand hitters help anyway, with temperatures in the mid 70s, winds blowing out and home runs projected to get an 18% boost.
That is why this matchup drew attention beyond a normal division game. The Cubs already had the deeper recent offensive profile, the Cardinals ranked 22nd in OPS vs. lefties, and Boyd’s split numbers still pointed to a path for Chicago if he kept the ball in the park. For readers following the line, the next piece to watch was whether Boyd’s home-run issue at Wrigley would show up again or whether the Cubs would lean on the same edge that made him a factor in other starts, including the one discussed in Cubs Vs Pirates: Jared Jones, Matthew Boyd and a tight Pirates line and the build-up noted in Cubs Score latest: Matthew Boyd set for Tuesday bullpen session as Justin Steele builds up.
