Tropical Storm Lala is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it closes in on Hawaii Island on Saturday morning, with conditions expected to deteriorate there early Saturday and hurricane conditions likely on the island during the day. Hawaii Island is under a Hurricane Warning, while a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all other islands.
That warning split matters because the storm is no longer a distant system on the map. As of 11 p.m. Friday, Lala's center was about 165 miles from South Point and about 375 miles from Honolulu, moving west-northwest near 13 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 220 miles from the center, broad enough to put parts of the island chain in play even before the strongest winds arrive.
The forecast also points to a wide rain and surf threat. Lala was expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain across Hawaii Island, with locally higher amounts up to 25 inches possible, while Maui was expected to see 8 to 12 inches and the remainder of the island chain 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches. That kind of rainfall could bring life-threatening flooding and mudslides, and the combination of storm surge and tide could flood normally dry coastal areas. A High Surf Warning was also in effect through 6 a.m. Sunday for east-facing shores of Hawaii Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu.
What makes the forecast difficult is that the storm is expected to keep changing as it nears land. Lala was slowly becoming better organized Friday night, which supports strengthening, but short-term deviations in the track remain possible. A mid-level high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands was steering the storm generally west-northwestward, and after passing near or over the southern portion of the Big Island, it could turn northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a west-northwestward path south of the smaller islands. That means the difference between a close pass and a more direct brush can still change local wind, rain and surge impacts, especially on Hawaii Island and the southern edge of the island chain.
HNN First Alert Weather Team has declared Saturday and Sunday First Alert Weather Days, and that is the practical bottom line for residents and travelers: Hawaii Island faces the first and most serious impacts on Saturday, then Maui County Saturday night and Oahu and Kauai County by Sunday morning. If the center tracks a little closer than forecast, the southern and windward sides of the islands could see sharper effects; if it slips farther away, the main threat still remains rain, surf and strong gusts rather than a clean miss. Either way, the weekend is shaping up around Lala, not around routine island weather.
