Ken Paxton and James Talarico are locked in a dead heat in a new Texas U.S. Senate poll, with Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%. Five percent of likely voters were undecided and 2% backed someone else, putting the race squarely inside the survey’s +/- 3 percent credibility interval.
The numbers help explain why the Ken Paxton Texas Senate campaign is drawing attention now: the race is close enough that a single point does not amount to a clear lead, and the survey was conducted August 9-10, 2026, giving Texas voters and campaigns a fresh snapshot of where things stand. James Talarico was supported by 46% overall, but his support rose to 53% among voters under 50, a 15-point edge that flips the race’s age pattern.
Paxton, by contrast, led among voters over 50 by 11 points, 53% to 42%. Emerson College Polling’s Spencer Kimball said the contest is sharply divided by age, and the split is the clearest sign that the overall tie hides two very different electorates. Paxton’s 43% favorable rating and 44% unfavorable rating also show he is not running from a position of broad goodwill, even as his overall number edges Talarico’s by one point.
The same survey points to a wider political map that may shape how both campaigns talk in the weeks ahead. Greg Abbott led Gina Hinojosa in the Texas governor’s race, 49% to 45%, while the economy ranked as the top issue for Texas voters at 30% and immigration followed at 19%. Forty-three percent said Texas is on the right track, while 48% said it is headed in the wrong direction.
There is also a warning sign for both Republicans in the poll. Among Hispanic voters, 58% disapproved of Donald Trump and 57% disapproved of Greg Abbott, and the Democrat on the ballot led by 19 points for Talarico and by 17 points for Hinojosa. That helps explain why a race that looks even overall is still fragile underneath, with different groups sorting the candidates in opposite directions.
The broader verdict from the poll is that Paxton is ahead only in the narrowest possible sense, and not by enough to look settled. Talarico’s under-50 strength gives him a path to erase the gap, while Paxton’s over-50 edge keeps the race alive. If that age split holds, the Texas Senate contest will stay competitive rather than turning into a race decided by the first poll of the fall.
