The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday fined George Santos $35,000 and banned him from Kalshi for three years after finding that he used the prediction-market platform to trade on whether he would attend the State of the Union in February.
The enforcement action lands on Santos at a moment when he is already trying to reframe himself as a combative critic of the platform. He posted on social media about whether he would show up, then later said in a video on X, a day before the speech, that he was going to be there in the gallery. He also asked followers on Instagram whether he should wear a “bedazzled suit” or a more toned-down option, adding a touch of theater to a bet that the regulator says became a trading advantage.
Federal regulators said Santos bought and sold positions while talking publicly about his plans to attend or skip the address, and that his posts moved contract prices in a direction that helped his positions. The CFTC said he made material misrepresentations and omissions about whether he would attend, and that he made more than $17,500 from the trades after prices shifted. The penalty and the ban amount to a hard stop: Santos cannot use Kalshi for three years, and the commission is treating his conduct as more than just a bad guess about his own schedule.
Joseph Murray, speaking for Santos, said he had “no intent to deceive any person, nor intent to manipulate any market,” and said Santos settled the matter and wanted to “put this matter behind him.” That version collides with the commission’s account of deliberate omissions and misleading statements. It also leaves open a basic question about the settlement itself: how much of the $35,000 reflects the regulator’s view of the conduct, and how much reflects compromise.
Santos’ clash with Kalshi comes against a broader backdrop that already made him one of the more scrutinized figures in Congress in 2023, when he was expelled, later sentenced to prison for 87 months and then released after Donald Trump commuted the sentence 84 days in. He has not backed away from confrontation. After the enforcement action, he posted on X about Kalshi five times in 24 hours, called it a predatory platform, demanded that its founder be deported and threatened to have it legislated out of existence. The fine settles one federal case, but it also sharpens the next fight: whether Santos turns the ruling into a personal grudge, or whether the ban keeps him off the market he tried to game.
