The S&P 500 ended July essentially flat after a month that lurched from one alarm to the next, then steadied just enough in the final two trading days to keep the index from finishing with a clear loss. The rebound was enough to send the S&P 500 into August back above its 50-day moving average.
That is why S&P 500 today is still a live search. Investors are trying to make sense of a month that included a hawkish-sounding Federal Reserve decision on July 29, the market's worst single day since April 2025, and a jump in the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007. Housing and other interest-rate sensitive stocks took the hit, while the Nasdaq Composite posted a low-single digit decline and later bounced off its 100-day moving average.
The month’s trade was not driven by one clean story. A renewed war between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil and related prices higher and shut traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while June Personal Spending growth of 0.3%, the lowest since January, kept inflation and demand concerns alive. Earnings added their own filter: companies had to clear both consensus figures and whisper numbers before investors were willing to bid them higher.
That standard helped explain the whiplash in chip stocks. AI-capex skepticism and a Korean memory-chip selloff weighed on the group before Microsoft earnings and then Amazon earnings sparked a rebound in those stocks, as well as in the hyperscalers and other key capex beneficiaries. The Pro Portfolio finished July more than 210 basis points ahead of the S&P 500, underscoring how much the month rewarded selectivity over simple index exposure.
By the close, the message was less about panic than recalibration. The S&P 500 was set to start August back above its 50-day moving average, and the Nasdaq Composite was approaching its next test near 25,950, a level that will matter if the late-July bounce is to hold. Next week is expected to bring fresh data on inflation, the speed of the economy and job creation, while Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and a wave of investor conferences arrive in the ensuing weeks. Wall Street then moves into its usual August slowdown before the post Labor Day sprint to year-end, and the next stretch of data will decide whether July was just a pause or the start of something sturdier.
