Bogdan Grad will enter UFC Belgrade on Saturday as the betting favorite, with the line sitting at -210 for his bout against Dennis Buzukja inside the Belgrade Arena in Serbia. Buzukja is listed at +170, even though both fighters are coming in on two-fight losing streaks.
That price is a sign that the market sees more than recent results. Grad, who uses a grappling-heavy approach to blunt striking, needed two fights in Dana White’s Contender Series before earning his UFC contract, then made his octagon debut in February 2025. Since then, he has picked up one victory against Lucas Alexander and dropped two fights to Muhammad Naimov and Luke Riley.
Buzukja’s path to the roster was longer in a different way. He earned his UFC spot with a win in July 2022 on Dana White’s Contender Series, made his promotional debut a year later and has since gone 1-4 in the UFC. His lone win came against Conor Matthews, while Sean Woodson, Jamall Emmers, Francis Marshall and Marcio Barbosa handed him four losses.
That contrast helps explain why Grad is still being backed to win by decision despite the identical losing streaks. The odds point to a fight where control and pace may matter more than momentum, and where Grad’s style is being treated as the safer answer to a tough matchup.
Saturday in Serbia gives both men a clear chance to reset, but the market has already chosen a side. If Grad handles Buzukja the way the odds suggest, he can turn a shaky run into something steadier and keep himself moving in the right direction inside the UFC.
