A July 28 poll showed Gina Hinojosa closing the gap with Greg Abbott in the Texas governor’s race, but still trailing him 45% to 42%. The three-point margin sits inside the poll’s plus or minus 3.4 percentage-point error band, and 10% of likely voters said they were still undecided.
That makes the latest survey the clearest sign yet that Hinojosa has tightened a race Abbott has led in every poll cited here. In April, Texas Public Opinion Research showed him ahead 48% to 43%; in May, the same group had him up 46% to 41% with 9% undecided. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released June 22 put the race at 47% to 40% for Abbott, and a New York Times poll released June 30 showed a 51% to 44% lead.
The July 15-17 survey questioned 1,048 likely Texas voters, and the size of the undecided bloc matters because a race this close can move on a relatively small share of the electorate. If those voters break in one direction, or if turnout shifts slightly, the margin can change quickly; if they stay home or split late, the lead can survive even in a narrow race. That is why the July result drew attention, especially with Hinojosa making up ground from earlier polls rather than losing it.
The poll also showed where the two candidates are drawing strength. Hinojosa led among independents, moderates, Black voters and Latino voters, while Abbott led among college-educated voters and white voters. She said her pitch is to save public schools, put money back in voters’ pockets and end what she calls the Greg Abbott Corruption Tax. She also said she is traveling the state hearing from Republicans, Independent and Democrats who want to rebuild the American Dream in Texas with an economy that works for the people, strong neighborhood schools and safe communities.
For now, the numbers say the race is competitive without saying it is changed hands. Abbott still leads every poll cited here, but Hinojosa has moved from trailing by eight points in one April University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey to three points in the latest Texas Public Opinion Research result. The question left by the July poll is not whether the race is close; it is whether Hinojosa can turn a narrowing deficit and a large undecided bloc into enough votes to catch Abbott before the fall.
