NVIDIA could climb about 56% over the next three years if revenue keeps compounding at 30% annually and the stock’s valuation multiple falls to 21.7x, a scenario that puts the shares near $296.01. The model also lifts the company’s market cap to $7.2T from $4.6T today.
That is why the Cathie Wood Nvidia Stock Purchase theme is drawing attention now: investors are not just looking at what NVIDIA sells today, but at how much of its next business wave is already being priced in. The company has visibility to nearly $20 billion in total CPU revenue this year, and the newer VeraCPU opens a $200 billion TAM, giving the stock a fresh expansion story even as the market assigns it a lower multiple than its 3-year average.
The math behind the projection is straightforward. Revenue rises from $253.5B to $556.9B over three years, margins ease from 63% to 60%, and earnings increase from $159.6B to roughly $331.5B. Even with those gains, the stock is not modeled on a richer valuation. Its P/E starts at 28.9x, sits well below the 3-year average of 54.1x, and is trimmed to 21.7x in the scenario. The result is a forecast that still leaves room for meaningful upside even after multiple compression.
That is also where the friction sits. NVIDIA is being described as building a major business in a market it had never addressed before, yet the market has already marked the stock to a lower earnings multiple. The near-$20 billion in CPU revenue expected this year shows the new business is real, but it also raises the harder question: how much of that future is already in the price before VeraCPU turns into a larger revenue engine?
Management has said it is still a little early to tell whether the coming VeraRubin ramp can match Blackwell’s velocity, and that matters because the whole stock case depends on the new businesses arriving fast enough to keep revenue growth near 30%. If that pace holds, the model’s three-year target looks reachable. If it slows, the upside shrinks quickly. For NVIDIA investors, the next test is not whether the company has a new market. It is how fast that market becomes money.
