Marco Rubio has cut sharply into JD Vance’s lead in New Hampshire, a new University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll found this week. Vance was at 36% among likely GOP primary voters, with Rubio at 26%.
That is a far tighter race than the one the same survey found in February, when Vance led Rubio 53% to 7%. The move matters because New Hampshire has held the first Republican presidential primary for a century, and even a hypothetical early-state poll can shape how the next field is read long before ballots are cast.
Rubio’s climb is also showing up beyond New Hampshire. Earlier this year, he finished second to Vance in the CPAC 2028 Republican presidential nomination straw poll, a sign that his standing is no longer confined to one state. In the new New Hampshire survey, Rand Paul and Nikki Haley were each at 8%, Ron DeSantis was at 6%, and everyone else tested was at 4% or less.
That leaves Vance still in front, but no longer by anything close to the kind of margin that would have made the race feel settled. David Carney put it bluntly to Digital: “There’s nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense.”
The gap also tells a broader story about why Rubio is gaining traction now. His public profile and responsibilities have grown, and that appears to be translating into stronger support in polls that measure the Republican field before it is fully formed. Vance remains the figure most closely associated with Donald Trump and the MAGA and America First base, which is why he has long been treated as the favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination.
Still, the numbers from New Hampshire suggest the field may not stay that way for long. Rubio’s 26% would not flip the race on its own, but in an early state it is enough to change the conversation from whether Vance is the clear front-runner to how much room he still has before the first votes are ever cast. The real test will come after this autumn’s midterm elections, when the 2028 race is expected to begin in earnest.
