Bleacher Report has projected a very tough 2026 for the Miami Dolphins, putting them at four or fewer wins after a roster overhaul and a punishing schedule. The team opens the season on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week One, and the number hanging over it now is 4.5 wins.
That projection is the kind of figure that explains why the Dolphins are drawing attention now. Betting experts have already set their win-loss total at 4.5 for the 2026 season, so a forecast of four or fewer wins places Miami well below even that modest line. For readers tracking the team’s direction, this is no longer a question of whether the Dolphins are contending. It is a question of how quickly the reset begins to show up on the field.
Brad Gagnon’s case starts with last season, when the Dolphins won seven games against the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL. He says the challenge gets sharper in 2026, with Miami facing the second-toughest schedule in the league. That matters because the roster is not just older in spots; it has been turned over, with new general manager Jon-Eric Sullvan replacing many high-priced veterans with 13 new rookies and several under-the-radar free agent signings.
The rebuild comes with a built-in contradiction. Gagnon allows that better injury luck could help after the Dolphins led the AFC in adjusted games lost in 2025, and he also says Malik Willis and a coaching staff may energize the franchise. But he does not see enough certainty around that support to trust the next step, especially as the post-Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle era begins in South Florida. His view is blunt: for now, this looks like one of the weakest rosters in the league.
That is why the opener matters more than usual. The Dolphins’ trip to Las Vegas is the first real test of whether the new roster can do more than survive, and it sits inside a wider schedule that leaves little room for a slow start. Miami is also still moving through the final stretch of its recent past, with a Week 18 visit to the New England Patriots in the 2025 NFL regular season adding one more marker to a transition that is already underway. The next number that will matter is not another projection but the first result, because the 2026 Dolphins are being judged as a team trying to rebuild before the season even starts.
Miami Dolphins Schedule 2026 Release Set for Thursday Night at 8 p.m.
