The Atlanta Braves opened Monday night as -120 favorites against the New York Mets in Flushing, a line that reflects more than a hot stretch. Atlanta has won six of its last eight games, and the number leaves little doubt about who bookmakers expect to control the series opener.
Zac Thornton is the reason the game has drawn attention beyond the usual Braves vs. Mets pull. The New York Mets southpaw owns a 1.93 ERA, but the underlying shape is less convincing: a 4.23 xERA, a 12.3% barrel rate and a 19.5 K% suggest the surface numbers are running ahead of the process. He has held opponents to a.173 average, yet his.251 xBA points to more traffic than the results have shown.
That split matters because Atlanta has started to hit lefties better. The Braves rank 14th in wOBA against left-handed pitching over the past couple of weeks and seventh in ISO in that same span, while they sit fourth in homers on the year. Against a pitcher whose Triple-A track record included a 1.38 WHIP and 1.7 homers per nine innings, that gives the favorite a path to pressure early.
Martin Perez is on the other side, and the Mets have already seen how quickly that matchup can turn. A few weeks ago, New York scored four runs in 4 1/3 innings against him, and the club’s own July production has been only ordinary, ranking 11th in wOBA and 13th in OPS during the month. New York has also cashed the Game Total Over in 20 of its last 35 home games, which fits a forecast calling for temperatures in the high 70s and double-digit-mile-per-hour winds blowing out.
The price and the pitching tell the same story. Atlanta is favored, the environment leans toward runs, and Thornton’s ERA is the number most likely to bend if those batted-ball and contact indicators catch up Monday night.
