Elon Musk’s net worth has fallen from a June peak of $1.45 trillion to about $738 billion as Tesla shares slide and SpaceX trades far below its post-IPO high. The drop puts a hard number on a summer that has already turned the market against two of the companies most closely tied to Musk’s fortune.
Tesla was trading at $308.05 in Friday afternoon action, down 4% on the day and 18% over the past month, after Tuesday’s Q2 2026 report gave investors more questions than comfort. Revenue rose 25.5% year over year to $28.24 billion, but adjusted EPS came in at $0.33 against a $0.50 consensus, adjusted EBITDA reached $3.2 billion versus a $4 billion bar, operating income fell 56.9% to $398 million, operating margin compressed to 1%, and free cash flow flipped to negative $1.09 billion.
That mix matters because Musk’s wealth is tied not just to one ticker but to the way investors price the whole Tesla and SpaceX story. A stronger top line can still leave the market cold when earnings quality weakens, and that is what showed up here. Tesla’s full-year capex is confirmed above $25 billion, so the company is still spending heavily on AI, Robotaxi and Optimus even as the stock loses momentum. The market has also marked down the company’s price targets, with Canaccord at $410 from $450, Cantor at $485 from $510, JPMorgan at $445 from $475 and Morgan Stanley at $400 from $417.
SpaceX is doing its own damage. It IPO’d on June 12 at $135, peaked at $225.64 on June 16 and now trades at $113, putting it 50% below the high. Musk has said there was “more and more overlap” between Tesla and SpaceX and floated a combination to, but the market has not treated that idea as a catalyst. Polymarket assigns a 22.5% probability of a merger announcement by year-end, which is a low bar for what would be one of the most consequential corporate moves in Musk’s orbit.
Tonight’s Starship Flight 13 is the next real test. It is targeted for this evening, with Polymarket pricing 81% odds of a successful launch and 72% odds of a controlled splashdown. A Raymond James note said Starship becoming operational is the critical path to the SpaceX thesis, which is why this launch matters beyond the spectacle. The next hard date is August 6, when the SpaceX lockup expiry is expected to free roughly 900 million insider shares. For Musk, the question is no longer whether his fortune can move by the trillions. It is whether the pieces holding it up can stop falling first.
