Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected to move into the NYC area Saturday, bringing a risk of flash flooding, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado. The National Weather Service says multiple rounds of heavy downpours and thunderstorms are expected from late Saturday morning into Saturday evening across the New York City region.
The forecast has a clear clock on it. A flood watch is in effect from 10 a.m. Saturday until 2 a.m. Sunday for northeast New Jersey, New York City and southern Westchester, where the highest flash flooding risk is expected. Average rainfall totals are projected to be around 1 to 1.5 inches, but localized swaths could pick up 2 to 4 inches, with rainfall rates reaching 1.5 to 2 inches per hour and 2 to 3 inches possible in a three-hour period.
That kind of rain can turn fast in a crowded urban area. The National Weather Service says isolated to scattered flash flooding could hit poor-drainage, low-lying and urban areas, and that flooding could become locally significant enough to disrupt transportation, flood basements and prompt water rescues. The main severe weather concern is wind, with gusts of 60 to 70 mph or higher possible across northeast New Jersey, the NYC metro and the Lower Hudson Valley.
An isolated tornado is also possible, with the highest tornado risk across northeast New Jersey into the NYC metro. The exact timing and placement of the strongest storms may not be clear until only a few hours before they develop, which is why the threat can sharpen quickly even after the forecast is already public. Smoke is expected to continue affecting the area through Saturday afternoon, and dangerous rip currents are also expected at ocean beaches through Saturday evening.
For now, the forecast points to a day built around several hazards at once: heavy rain inland, stronger wind in the main metro corridor and hazardous beach conditions along the coast. Residents of New York City and nearby areas should expect the weather to change fast Saturday, with the most serious impacts likely to emerge before the day is over.
