The Royals reached the All-Star break at 38-59, a record that leaves them buried in the AL Central and effectively out of the wild card chase before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. For a team that came into the season with real hope, the break arrived with the season’s direction already settled.
That is why Royals Game searches are pointing to Kansas City now. FanGraphs had the club with the second-highest preseason odds to win the American League Central and gave it a 44.8% chance to make the playoffs, but the Royals are tied with the Angels for the worst record in Major League Baseball and sit 13 games back in the division and 10 behind in the wild card race.
Bobby Witt Jr. has been good enough to look like an MVP candidate, and Jac Caglianone has made a massive leap in his second season as a slugger. Those two have done enough to stand out on a roster that has not, as a whole, held up. Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia have all floundered at the plate compared with last year, and Garcia has missed the past few weeks with a strained left hand after Pasquantino lost almost a month to a right hamate fracture.
The bigger problem is the list of bodies missing from the pitching staff. Cole Ragans had season-ending UCL surgery earlier this month and will miss the rest of the year and some or all of 2027. Kris Bubic went on the injured list with elbow issues in mid-May, is now dealing with shoulder soreness and still has not returned. Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna had season-ending surgeries in April, four relievers are currently on the injured list, and Carlos Estévez, who opened the year as the closer, has been stalled since making his lone appearance on March 28.
Estévez’s season has been a snapshot of how quickly the Royals’ pitching plans unraveled. He was coming off 42 saves and a 2.45 ERA over 66 innings last year, then gave up six earned runs in one-third of an inning in a loss to the Braves, landed on the shelf with a left foot contusion and later strained his rotator cuff during a rehab assignment in early May. He is not expected back until at least August, if at all, which says as much about the club’s health as any standings check.
That leaves J.J. Picollo heading toward a deadline that may not be especially active for the Royals, even if the logic points toward selling. The club is not in position to buy ahead of Aug. 3, and multiple veterans could be moved if the front office decides that salvaging value matters more than keeping the roster intact. The hard part is judging how much return Kansas City can get for players such as Wacha without settling for too little, and whether the Royals will move anyone at all. At 38-59, the answer matters less for the standings than for what the next version of this roster looks like once the deadline passes.
