Ted Cruz said Wednesday that James Talarico has a real chance to beat Ken Paxton and keep the Texas Senate race close, putting a Democratic candidate he helped frame as a threat squarely in the center of the fight. On Sean Hannity’s radio show, Cruz called it a real race and said the polling right now shows a 1- or 2-point contest.
That is the kind of margin that keeps campaigns up at night. Recent public polling has shown Talarico running neck and neck with Paxton, and Cruz’s warning only sharpened the sense that Texas is not the kind of easy Republican hold some in his party may have expected. The next election is still ahead, but the race is already being discussed as if every point matters.
Cruz did not sound like he was treating Talarico as a novelty. He described him as charming and affable, said he sounds like a preacher, and warned that voters who are not paying close attention could see only a young man who seems pleasant on TV. That assessment matters because it came alongside Cruz’s own argument that Talarico is radical and extreme for labeling God nonbinary and because he said there are six recognized sexes, a line meant to turn the campaign into a cultural test as much as a political one.
The Republican line around Talarico has not been limited to Cruz. Greg Abbott said he personally thinks Talarico will be very beatable once Texans get to know who he really is, while repeatedly calling him Jimmy Talarico and skipping over his actual opponent, Gina Hinojosa. The party’s attacks show how much effort is being spent trying to define the Democrat before he can define himself, even as polling suggests that strategy has not yet opened much of a gap.
That is what makes Cruz’s comments stand out. He won reelection in 2018 by 2.6 points, the closest statewide race in Texas this millennium, and he was effectively saying this Senate race could land in the same narrow territory. He also pointed to a national mood that he knows is unsettled for Republicans, with Donald Trump’s approval rating settling just under 40% since late April, and he urged Republicans and ordinary commonsense Texans to vote. In other words, he was not just spinning a tough race; he was acknowledging that the numbers are real.
For now, the open question is not whether Talarico can make this a fight. Cruz already answered that. The question is whether Republicans can turn a one- or two-point race into something safer before the Texas Senate contest that year decides whether Paxton or Talarico sets the terms. That is why the polling is being watched so closely, and why a warning from Cruz landed like a campaign memo everyone was meant to hear.
