Jamie Dimon warned on June 15 that the current bull market will not last, comparing it to “a little tsunami” and saying that when momentum like that builds, it is hard to stop, but it will stop. The warning landed just as North American markets kept pressing higher, with investors still acting as if the rally can run without much interruption.
Dimon, speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event, said he was surprised by how relaxed investors seemed given how unstable the world is. He pointed to tensions with Iran, Russia and China, saying they matter enormously for the free world even if they are not hurting the economy today. His message was blunt: he thinks the odds of something bad happening are higher than what is probably already priced into the market.
That caution sits beside a market that still looks unconcerned. The S&P/TSX Composite Index hit a record intraday high of 35,629.89 on June 17 and was up more than 31% year over year, while the Nasdaq had risen about 15% since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the S&P 500 about 9%. For Canadian investors watching RRSPs and TFSAs, the timing matters because the gains keep coming even as one of Wall Street’s most closely watched executives is telling them the run has gone too far.
Dimon backed up his warning with signs of support that can fade. He pointed to roughly US$700 billion in AI-related spending by the largest technology companies, a U.S. unemployment rate near 4.3% and economic growth running around 2% in early 2026. Those are the kind of numbers that keep a rally alive, but they also help explain why he thinks investors may be underestimating how long inflation can stay sticky and how quickly sentiment can turn.
The friction in his argument is that markets are still looking through the risk. The U.S.-Iran conflict has already led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply, yet stocks have not flinched in the way a geopolitical shock might suggest. That gap between what is happening in the world and what is showing up in prices is exactly what Dimon is warning about, and it is why his message cuts against the mood of the market.
For Canada, the backdrop is no calmer. Canada’s economy slipped into a technical recession in early 2026 after GDP shrank for two consecutive quarters, even as the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% after cutting it from 5.0% to 2.25% in October 2025. Dimon did not name a trigger or a date for when the bull market would break, and that is the point: he sees a market still climbing, but one that may be leaning harder on optimism than on reality.
