Mississippi may have a longer wait for cooler weather this year. The Old Farmer's Almanac Fall Forecast calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall across much of the Deep South, with the Gulf Coast also leaning warmer and drier than usual.
For Bonnie Bolden, that means the first real hint of fall may not arrive until later in the season. Fall begins on Sept. 22 with the autumnal equinox, but meteorological autumn starts on Sept. 1, and the almanac's early outlook suggests September and October will feel more like a delayed transition than a quick change in the weather.
The forecast is not subtle. The Deep South is expected to run about one degree warmer than average in September and October, while southern areas could see as much as 4 inches less rainfall than usual. Farther north, the almanac says some regions may end up about 2 inches short on rain. The eastern U.S. and the Pacific Coast are the parts of the country where cooler temperatures could show up.
That matters in Mississippi, where sustained cooler weather typically does not settle in until October anyway. Average highs there fall into the upper 70s in October, and overnight lows drop into the 50s. In other words, the almanac is not calling for a dramatic break from the norm so much as a stretch that could keep the Magnolia State warmer and drier than many residents would prefer as fall gets underway.
The Old Farmer's Almanac says it bases its long-range outlook on science, climatology and meteorology, comparing temperature and precipitation with a rolling 30-year average. The method is built to give clues about seasonal trends, not day-by-day weather. The forecast is meant to help farmers, gardeners and event planners make decisions well ahead of time.
That claim has always carried a shadow. In an internal review of the 2023-24 winter, the almanac gave itself about an 80% accuracy rate, but a University of Illinois study published in 1981 found only about 50% accuracy for rain and precipitation forecasts over five years. That gap is why seasonal outlooks are useful as a planning signal, not a promise.
The almanac has helped people plan their year since 1792, and it keeps doing what it has always done: offering a broad seasonal map and asking readers to decide how much faith to put in it. For Mississippi and the wider Deep South, the immediate takeaway is simple. Cooler weather is coming, but this forecast says it may arrive late, and it may arrive with less rain than usual.
