The New York Yankees arrived in St. Petersburg, Florida for a four-game Yankees Vs Rays series with the standings turned against them. Two and a half weeks ago, they were 45-27 and up 3.5 games over the Tampa Bay Rays. Now Tampa Bay owns a four-game lead in the AL East.
That is why this series matters today. It begins Monday at 6:40 pm ET, with Cam Schlittler set to start for the Yankees against Griffin Jax. Schlittler was picked for his first All-Star game on Monday, a milestone that fits his first full season, but it also comes with the weight of his recent form: he leads the league with a 2.08 ERA and a 203 ERA+, yet he has lost his last two starts and was tagged for four home runs in a six-run loss to the Detroit Tigers.
The pitcher's lane is the point of the series. Griffin Jax has been effective since joining the rotation on April 26th, posting a 2.65 ERA even though his 4.09 FIP suggests less comfort than the surface numbers. Opponents hit.152 against his changeup in June, which helps explain why the Rays trusted him in this spot. For the Yankees, Will Warren and Gerrit Cole give them a path to stay alive in the race, but both bring their own uneven stretch into the week. Warren had a 2.39 ERA after his fourth victory on May 1st, then a 4.70 ERA across 10 starts since then, though he held the Detroit Tigers to two runs in 5.1 innings last time out. Cole has allowed 17 runs in five June starts, even if he permitted two runs in five innings in his last outing and earned the Yankees' sole win in their last nine games.
The gap in the division is the friction underneath every game in this set. The Yankees had been expected to coast toward the AL East title before their slump, while the Rays have surged into first place and entered the week on a heater. Tampa Bay had not even announced a Tuesday starter before the latest update, then pushed Shane McClanahan back a day for extra rest as he works back from injury and named Ian Seymour instead. Seymour has been all over the map, throwing 6.2 innings of no-hit ball in a near-combined no-hitter against the Royals on June 25th and beating the Royals again on July 2nd, but also allowing three runs on seven hits against the Nationals on June 20th.
What happens next is simple and unforgiving. The Yankees can still make this week matter by cutting into a four-game deficit over four games, but they cannot afford to leave St. Petersburg without a swing in the race. Tuesday brings Warren against Seymour, and Wednesday brings Cole against McClanahan. By then, the standings may look a lot different, or the Rays may have made the separation feel permanent.
