Two new polls show Texas’ U.S. Senate race locked in a statistical tie, putting Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Sen. James Talarico on almost the same footing just months before voters decide the seat in November.
The most striking finding comes from /Siena poll, which found 47% for Paxton and 47% for Talarico among 656 likely Texas voters surveyed from June 19 to 27. A separate University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll, conducted among 1,200 self-reported registered voters from June 5 to 12, showed Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%. For a race in Texas, that is a jolt. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and Democrats have been waiting for a credible opening ever since.
That is why the numbers are drawing attention now. The Republican Party is preparing to gather in Dallas for its first-ever midterm national convention on Sept. 9 and 10, and the setting only sharpens the contrast: a party meeting in a state it has long treated as safe while its Senate nominee is running even. No official delegate business is expected at the convention, but the symbolism is hard to miss.
The polling also puts a finer point on the race’s larger problem for Republicans. Paxton is burdened by past scandals, and several key Republicans in Texas have said they cannot in good conscience vote for him in November. His tenure as attorney general has already been defined by impeachment, making him the only Texas attorney general to be impeached in state history before the Texas Senate acquitted him along party lines. That history now sits beside fresh numbers showing he has not built a clear advantage over Talarico.
The result is a race that could force a long-held political assumption to give way. Texas is still a Republican stronghold on paper, but the numbers suggest the seat is genuinely in play and that Democrats have a serious chance to win it for the first time in a generation. Whether that narrow edge for Talarico hardens into a real lead by November is the question that will hang over every poll from here on out.
