SportsLine’s latest model has turned the 2026 John Deere Classic into a betting puzzle before a shot is struck. After 10,000 simulations, it points to a board where the favorite, Ben Griffin, is expected to come up short of the top five.
That matters now because the 2026 John Deere Classic tees off Thursday at 7:40 a.m. ET from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill., and the market has already locked onto the biggest names on the sheet. Griffin is listed at +1500, Christ Gotterup at +1800 and Jackson Koivun at +2200, while SportsLine’s projection gives the edge to a field that looks a little softer than usual for a PGA Tour stop that still carries 500 points and comes just before the Open Championship.
The model’s credibility is part of the sell. Built by DFS pro Mike McClure, it has said it nailed 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters, which SportsLine says was its fifth Masters in a row. It also says the model landed last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship, a record that explains why its projections tend to move from curiosity to market signal quickly.
Koivun gives the week a different kind of intrigue. He is making his professional debut after foregoing his senior year at Auburn, and the odds board gives him a real number to work with even without a professional résumé. SportsLine also calls Pierceson Coody a top contender at +3500, and the longshot lane does not stop there: one player sitting around +4000 is the sort of price that can turn a quiet Thursday into a sudden sprint if the opening round goes the right way.
The friction is that Griffin is still the favorite, but the model does not trust him to stay there once the full week plays out. That disconnect is what makes this event worth watching before sunrise on Thursday. The John Deere Classic is usually a place where the board can open up fast, and this version of it looks even looser with several big names away and a model leaning away from the bettor’s choice. The real answer comes at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, where the first leaderboard will tell whether SportsLine’s 10,000-run forecast was a sharp read or just an early number on a week that refuses to stay neat.
