Jon Ossoff is starting the 2026 Georgia Senate race with a double-digit lead over Mike Collins, according to a survey released Wednesday. The poll found Ossoff ahead 56% to 43% among Georgia registered voters, a 13-point margin that gives the contest an early shape even before the campaign is fully underway.
That is why the Jon Ossoff Mike Collins poll is drawing attention now. Ossoff narrowly won his seat in a January 2021 runoff by just over a percentage point, and this new survey suggests he begins the next race with a stronger position than the one that carried him into the Senate.
The numbers show where that advantage is coming from. Ossoff draws 87% of Black voters, 68% of voters under 30, 68% of independents, 66% of moderates and 66% of women under 45. Among voters who say they are motivated to vote, he still leads 55% to 44%. Collins does best with 79% of White evangelical Christians, 65% of White men without a college degree and 55% of rural voters, while about 53% of gun-owner households and 50% of veterans favor him.
Party lines are doing most of the work, but not all of it. Nearly all Democrats, 96%, back Ossoff, while 89% of Republicans back Collins. Even so, nearly a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans say they would vote for Ossoff, compared with just 4% of MAGA supporters. That split matters because Collins won the GOP primary runoff after receiving a last-minute endorsement from Donald Trump, yet he still trails the incumbent by 13 points.
There is also a concern gap underneath the topline. Ossoff’s favorable rating is 58%, compared with 44% for Collins and 42% for Trump. Georgians are also more likely to say they are extremely or very concerned that Collins is too close to Trump, 53%, than they are to say Ossoff is too liberal, 47%. Inflation is the top issue at 40%, followed by healthcare at 13%, with political divisions, immigration and jobs and unemployment each at 11%.
The survey does not settle the race, but it does set the opening terms. Ossoff enters as the incumbent Democratic senator with a clear lead, and Collins enters as the Republican Senate nominee still trying to turn Trump’s backing into broader appeal. For now, the burden is on Collins to prove that the early polling is not the map for what comes next.
