Jon Ossoff is starting 2026 with a clear edge over Mike Collins. A new survey released Wednesday shows the incumbent Democrat leading the Republican by 56% to 43% in the Georgia Senate race.
The numbers give Ossoff an early lead of 13 points in a state that has stayed close in recent national elections. He won his Senate seat in January 2021 by just over a percentage point, and the new poll suggests he is entering the next race from a stronger place than his last statewide win.
Collins, meanwhile, comes into the contest with Donald Trump’s backing after winning the June GOP primary runoff, but that support has not yet translated into a lead. The poll found 89% of Republicans behind Collins and 79% of White evangelical Christians in his corner, yet Ossoff still leads overall. Even among the 82% of Georgia voters who said they are motivated to vote, Ossoff is ahead by 11 points.
That split matters because the race is not being decided only by party loyalty. Ossoff is getting 96% support from Democrats, 68% from independents, 66% from moderates and 87% from Black voters. Collins is strongest with 65% of White men without a college degree, 55% of rural voters, 53% of gun-owner households and 50% of veterans. But the poll also shows he is underperforming David Perdue, the Republican Ossoff beat in 2021, which helps explain why Trump’s endorsement has not closed the gap.
There is another warning sign for Collins: voters are not viewing him as strongly as they view Ossoff. Ossoff has a 58% favorable rating, while Collins stands at 44%. Trump is at 42%, down 5 points from the 2024 Georgia FNVA, and Georgians were 6 points more likely to say they are extremely or very concerned that Collins is too close to Trump than that Ossoff is too liberal.
Issue priorities also favor the race being fought on ground that is not automatically friendly to Republicans. Inflation was the top issue for 40% of voters deciding their Senate vote, followed by healthcare at 13%. Political divisions, immigration, and jobs and unemployment each drew 11%, while the Iran conflict and crime were each named by 5% of voters and abortion by 3%.
Ossoff is also holding up well among the voters most likely to show up. About 8 in 10 of his supporters said they are certain to vote for him, and about 8 in 10 said they are extremely or very motivated to cast a ballot. Collins drew 78% certainty from his supporters and 84% motivation, but the poll still leaves him trailing by a margin that cannot be explained away by enthusiasm alone.
The early read is simple: Trump’s endorsement got Collins through the GOP primary, but it has not yet put him on top in the general election picture. Unless he improves beyond his current Republican base, Ossoff begins the 2026 Georgia Senate race with the better numbers and the safer political position.
