Four independent polls taken from June 1 to June 21 show Ken Paxton ahead of James Talarico by 1.25 percentage points, a margin so thin it leaves the Texas Senate race almost unchanged from one survey to the next. Paxton averaged 45.75% across those polls, while Talarico averaged 44.5%.
The numbers are being watched closely because Republicans still have four months before the November midterm election, and they are deciding how much of a role Donald Trump should play in Texas. President Trump and other Republican leaders, including Dan Patrick, have said they will campaign for Paxton, and that possibility now hangs over a race that could turn on turnout as much as persuasion.
The latest polling also gives Republicans a fresh reason to worry about a contest they see as central to keeping Texas in their column. Michael Williams told CBS News Texas that Trump should come to Texas right away because he motivates the grassroots. He said the race is not just about one candidate; it is about whether Republicans can keep a statewide edge that has held for decades.
Williams pointed to the party’s long winning streak in Texas, saying Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988 and have not won a statewide race of any kind since 1994. He also said Paxton will have to work hard to win over the 30% of voters who backed John Cornyn in the primary runoff, a bloc that may decide how much room Paxton has in a race this close.
That unease sits alongside an awkward political fact. Republican Senate leaders had urged Trump to back Cornyn because they believed Cornyn would have easily defeated Talarico, yet Trump endorsed Paxton on the second day of early voting in the primary runoff and Paxton went on to win by 28 percentage points. The endorsement settled the primary fight, but it did not erase the questions it left behind.
Paxton reportedly said during a recent tele-town hall that Republicans will hold a special midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, but a source told CBS News Texas that the first two weeks of the facility have been reserved by the RNC and that it has not been officially booked yet. That leaves one of the larger pieces of the GOP’s Texas plan still unresolved, even as party leaders talk up Trump’s help and search for a way to turn a narrow polling edge into a safer lead.
