A cool front is set to arrive late tonight into Monday morning, and with it comes the first real chance for scattered severe storms in the area. The threat level for severe weather is 2 of 5, with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns.
That is why people in Oklahoma City are searching for weather in Oklahoma City now: the timing is immediate, the hazards are mixed, and the storm window opens late tonight. Any severe storm could bring wind gusts up to 80 mph and hail up to hen egg size, while the chance of tornadoes remains very low.
The same system also carries a slight risk of flooding in low-lying and flood prone areas, with that flooding threat level also at 2 of 5. Rain and storm chances remain in the forecast through Thursday, so even after the first round moves in, the unsettled pattern does not end with one overnight line of storms.
That is the part that keeps this forecast from being simple. The severe storm threat is real, and so is the flooding risk, but the tornado concern stays low even as the atmosphere supports damaging wind and hail threats. In other words, the bigger problem may be repeated rounds of rain and storms rather than one extreme event.
Things clear out Monday afternoon, though an isolated severe storm is still possible then. The broader pattern still keeps rain and storm chances in place through Thursday, before conditions are expected to dry out next weekend.
Behind the front, an upper-level high pressure area centered to the southwest and a series of upper-level short wave troughs will keep the pattern active. For people in the area around Lawton, Okla., that means the safest assumption is not a quick ending, but several more days of on-and-off weather to watch.
