Democrats hold a 5-point lead over Republicans in the fight for control of Congress, a new NBC News poll found, giving the party a modest edge as the midterm campaign takes shape. Forty-nine percent of registered voters now say they want Democratic control of Congress, while 44% prefer Republicans and 7% are unsure.
Bill McInturff, one of the pollsters who reviewed the numbers, called them “rocky” for Republicans but “not catastrophic,” a line that fits the shape of the survey: Democrats have the advantage overall, but the race is not blown open. The poll was conducted this week and gives readers a fresh read on where voters stand now, not where they stood months ago.
That matters because the same survey shows how tightly the congressional fight remains tied to Donald Trump. His approval rating among registered voters fell to 42%, and two-thirds of independents disapproved of the job he is doing. Among Latinos, 64% disapproved of him, and among voters ages 18 to 29, disapproval reached 77%. Republicans still backed him overwhelmingly, with 82% approving and 58% strongly approving, but that support has slipped since March.
The topline also hides the split underneath it. Independents lean Democratic by 12 points, 46% to 34%, and majorities of Black and Latino voters, voters under 50 and those with a college degree prefer Democratic control of Congress. Republicans still retain an edge among men, white voters and those without a college education, which is enough to keep the contest competitive even as Democrats lead overall.
For Democrats, the math is cleaner in one chamber than the other. They need to net just three House seats to take control, a small climb by congressional standards. The Senate path is harder: Democrats would need four seats for a majority, and that means winning multiple states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
That is why the lead matters without settling the outcome. The NBC News poll showed Democrats ahead by 6 points in March, so this week’s 5-point margin is essentially unchanged. It is also better for Democrats than the parties’ tie in May 2022 and weaker than their 10-point lead in June 2018, which puts the current race between those two markers rather than at an extreme. The Republican challenge is clear, but the numbers do not yet point to a landslide. They point to a battleground that is tilted, not decided.
