Mitch Keller takes the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday at PNC Park, and the setup is already tilted by the numbers around him. The right-hander is scheduled to face a Los Angeles Dodgers club that has been pounding right-handed pitching, while the betting market has already pushed the total to 9.5 for the third game of the three-game set.
That is why Keller is drawing attention now. He enters with a 4.54 xERA, a.278 xBA, an 18th percentile whiff rate and a 93 Stuff+ rating, a profile that has left little room for error against one of the league’s hottest lineups. Los Angeles has posted a.273 xBA and a 148 wRC+ against right-handers over the past 14 days, along with a 9.7 swinging strike rate, which is the kind of recent production that forces handicappers to look beyond Pittsburgh’s home field and toward the matchup itself.
The pitching edge, at least on paper, still leans the Dodgers’ way because Justin Wrobleski is on the mound for Los Angeles. That matters in a game that was being priced with a total of 9.5, not only because Keller has struggled to miss bats, but because the forecast called for temperatures in the low 80s with 9-11 mph wind blowing out to left field. In a park and a series finale already sitting on a high total, that weather is enough to keep hitters in the conversation from the first inning on.
There is also no safety net in the bullpens. Los Angeles carried a 6.04 ERA over the previous 14 days, and Pittsburgh came in at 5.88, which helps explain why the over had cashed in 12 of the Pirates’ last 14 games. For a bettor, that is the uncomfortable part of this matchup: Keller has the weaker underlying line, Wrobleski gives the Dodgers the cleaner starting case, and both relief groups have been leaking runs lately. The game at PNC Park was set up to answer whether Keller could outpitch the metrics or just feed them one more result.
For more on how Pittsburgh has lined up Keller in this spot, see Cardinals Game set for Game #48 as Pirates send Mitch Keller to mound at What happens in this start will tell the fuller story, but the pregame read was already clear: the Pirates needed Keller to be better than his profile, and they were asking him to do it against a Dodgers lineup built to punish mistakes.
