Grant Holmes will start for the Braves in Chicago on Saturday, and the matchup comes with a built-in test: the White Sox plan to open with Brandon Eisert before likely turning to Erick Fedde. Atlanta arrives after sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates, but this game is less about momentum than how both clubs manage the first few innings.
Holmes, 26, has been useful for Atlanta with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.317 FIP this season, yet the deeper numbers point to a shakier profile. His 21.2 percent strikeout rate is the worst of his career, his expected ERA is 4.49, and hitters have done much more damage the second time through the order, posting a 1.010 OPS after seeing him once compared with.569 the first time and.519 the third. Nine of the 12 home runs he has allowed have come in that second trip through the lineup, a warning sign for a White Sox team that has already made noise with power.
Chicago enters the game fourth in MLB in home runs and seventh in total runs per game, even though its staff has posted a 4.38 ERA and sits in the bottom ten in the league in that category. The Braves, meanwhile, have to decide how long Holmes can carry them before the game shifts to the bullpen, with Didier Fuentes a possible long-relief option after an off day. That matters because the White Sox are not sticking to a straight starter’s script either.
Eisert is set to begin the game for Chicago, and he has already shown he can bother Atlanta. He held the Braves hitless in 1.1 innings last season, and this year he has put up a 3.21 ERA, a 2.97 FIP and a 1.214 WHIP in 14.0 innings, with 15 strikeouts and five walks. The opener choice also leaves Fedde as the likely follow-up, even though he was originally slated to start. Fedde has a 4.94 ERA and a 4.50 xERA, with his xERA in the bottom 33.0 percent of MLB, and he is striking out 14.2 hitters, which ranks in the bottom 4.0 percent, while walking 9.4 percent, a rate in the worst 40.0 percent.
That setup gives Atlanta a chance to attack early and Chicago a way to keep Holmes from settling in for a second look at the order. Holmes has been far better the first time through, and the Braves know the damage tends to come after that. If Eisert keeps the game tight for even a short stretch, the White Sox can hand it to Fedde and hope the matchup numbers do the rest. If not, the burden falls quickly on a bullpen game that is already carrying more questions than answers.
