Matt Turner did not try to soften it. With the United States set to open its World Cup campaign against Paraguay on Friday, the goalkeeper said the first game is everything.
That is why the opener is drawing so much attention now. The U.S. has built a World Cup pattern around starts: since returning to the tournament stage in 1990, it has advanced from the group every time it won or drew its opening match, and it has failed to move on every time it lost one. Cristian Roldan put the stakes in plain language too, saying a win against Paraguay would leave the U.S. in a very good spot to advance from the group.
The numbers behind that view are hard to ignore. One World Cup simulator gives the U.S. an 85% chance to reach the knockout stage and a 40% chance to win Group D, but those odds swing with the opener: 97% if the U.S. wins, 81% if it draws and 64% if it loses. The team is also chasing more than the four points that virtually guarantee a place in the knockout rounds. In a tournament with 48 teams, that kind of early cushion matters more than ever.
There is still a crack in the cleanest version of the story. Argentina won the 2022 World Cup after losing its opening game to Saudi Arabia, proof that one bad start does not close the door. But the U.S. is not built to rely on exceptions. Its recent history is more demanding, and that history is part of why Friday feels so loaded.
That pressure is sharpened by the shape of the bracket. Group D also includes Australia and Turkey, which leaves the U.S., Paraguay, Australia and Turkey all with realistic hopes of taking the group. The closest historical comparisons are the 1986, 1990 and 1994 World Cups, when 24 teams fed into a 16-team knockout stage. This time, the field expands to 48, but the path from the opening match still looks like the hinge on which the rest turns.
The Americans know where a strong start can lead. The group winner would move on to a third-place team from Groups B, E, F, I or J in Santa Clara, Calif., on July 1. The second-place team in Group D would face the Group G runner-up in Dallas on July 3. That is why the first 15 to 20 minutes matter so much to Roldan, who said he wants to see a strong performance, a team on the front foot and ready to compete at a high level.
The U.S. can point back to 2022 for proof that even a modest start can hold together. It drew Wales in its opener, took a point from England in the second match and then went into its final group game against Iran needing a win, with a Christian Pulisic first-half goal giving it the lead. This time, the standard is clearer. If Turner and the Americans make Friday count, they will walk into the rest of Group D with room to breathe. If they do not, the margin for error tightens fast.
