The Athletic launched its World Cup Tracker this week, giving readers a live map of the 2026 World Cup before a ball has been kicked. The tool projects how each of the 48 qualified teams could move through the tournament, lays out the most likely round-of-32 matchups and bundles current standings with other scenarios in one place.
For fans searching Fox Sports World Cup coverage, the appeal is simple: one tracker now tries to turn a messy tournament into a set of probabilities. The simulation is powered by Expected Goal Contribution, or xGC, a system The Athletic describes as a series of models that start with the smallest actions on the field — an individual pass or dribble — and build up to judgments about players and teams. That is what gives the forecast its edge over a simple ranking table. It is also why Spain and France sit neck-and-neck as the two strongest teams in the model.
The tracker matters because it does more than rank teams; it tries to show how the tournament could actually unfold. The Athletic says xGC also compares its ratings with FIFA rankings and betting markets, and the numbers can shift how familiar contenders are viewed. Argentina, the defending champion from 2022 and the owner of an 18-match winning streak, still does not rate as highly in the system as France and Spain do. The model gives weight to performance, but it does not reward reputation on its own.
That same approach produces some eye-catching player results. Lamine Yamal tops the list with an Expected Goal Contribution of 0.35, and The Athletic says a Spain side built around 11 players with his strengths would be expected to beat an average team by 3.85 goals. Spain is currently projected to win by 1.98 goals. Alex Baena and Marc Cucurella also appear on the top-five position lists with Yamal, while Spain midfielder Pedri just missed out. France and England are well represented on those lists too, a reminder that the model sees those countries as deep across the field rather than dependent on one star.
There is still a gap between the clean logic of the tracker and the reality of the tournament it is trying to predict. Norway, for example, is heading to its first World Cup since 1998, yet xGC still places Erling Haaland among the top forwards, alongside Alexander Sorloth, Martin Odegaard and Antonio Nusa. The system can identify talent with precision, but it cannot guarantee the shape of a World Cup, where one injury, one bad draw or one moment in a knockout match can overturn the forecast.
For now, the open question is not whether the tracker is useful. It is how much of its simulated bracket will survive contact with the real tournament, when the 2026 World Cup finally begins and the numbers have to compete with the game itself.
