Oracle is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, giving investors a fresh read on a stock that has swung with the AI trade and on the cloud business now tied to one of the market’s most closely watched customers, OpenAI. Sam Altman’s startup signed a $300 billion, five-year deal with Oracle in 2025, putting the company’s results squarely in the middle of the AI infrastructure boom.
Wall Street is looking for earnings of $1.97 a share on revenue of $19 billion, up from $1.70 a share on $15.9 billion in the same period a year earlier. Oracle’s broader cloud business is expected to reach $9.99 billion, with Cloud Applications seen at $4.16 billion and Cloud Infrastructure at $5.17 billion, a segment that is projected to post a 90.8% year-over-year improvement.
The numbers matter because they will show whether Oracle can keep translating AI demand into actual contracts and revenue at a pace that justifies the market’s latest enthusiasm. Remaining performance obligations, a measure of booked business that has not yet been delivered, are expected to hit $589.5 billion, up 327%, a sign that demand for the company’s cloud services remains very strong on paper.
That is the backdrop to a stock that has not moved in a straight line. Oracle shares fell in December after second-quarter earnings brought a weak outlook and concerns about spending plans, then rose in March after the company beat third-quarter expectations and lifted 2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion. As of Tuesday’s close, Oracle was up 5.6% year to date and had climbed more than 16% over the last 12 months, even after recent AI trade fluctuations.
For investors, Wednesday’s report is less about whether Oracle can post another clean beat than about whether the company can keep the cloud pipeline growing at a pace that supports its AI story. If earnings, cloud revenue and RPOs all come in strong, the bigger question will be whether Oracle can defend that momentum long enough to make the $300 billion OpenAI deal look like the start of a much larger cycle rather than a peak.
