The Phoenix Mercury’s visit to the Golden State Valkyries on Tuesday, June 9, comes with a simple expectation attached: points may be hard to find. Golden State is dead last in pace in the WNBA, Phoenix is only 12th, and the combination has made an Under 160 points bet the lean entering the game.
That search is happening now because the matchup lands on a Tuesday night with both teams coming in under very different kinds of pressure. Phoenix is on a two-game road winning streak, including a Friday upset of the Portland Fire, while Golden State has dropped three of its last four and is still trying to steady an offense that gets 42.9% of its scoring from threes. For a bettor, that is enough to make the Valkyries and Mercury one of the quieter games on the board.
The numbers support the case. Golden State shoots 42.5% from inside the arc and relies heavily on the outside shot to keep up, while Phoenix has been efficient enough to stay alive despite ranking 13th in field goal percentage. The Mercury also have a specific edge that fits this kind of matchup: Gabby Williams is making 2.1 threes per game at a 38.3% clip, giving Phoenix a steady perimeter threat when possessions slow down.
The part that keeps the game from feeling clean is on the other end. Phoenix has allowed a league-worst 38.4% shooting from downtown, so the Mercury are carrying recent road form but also a weakness that could let Golden State hang around if the Valkyries find rhythm outside. That is the small contradiction inside the Under case: the pace points down, but Phoenix’s perimeter defense has not been reliable enough to remove variance entirely.
Injury status only adds to the caution. Kahleah Copper was listed as questionable for the Mercury, Alyssa Thomas was probable and Sami Whitcomb was out, while no key injuries were reported for Golden State. With the Mercury also listed at 5-1 to the Under in their last six games, the market has plenty of reasons to expect a lower total — but Copper’s status remains the one unanswered piece that could change the shape of the night before tipoff.
