Paul Skenes gets the ball Tuesday night for Game 1 of the Dodgers-Pirates series at PNC Park, and Pittsburgh needs the start to look like the ace it has been missing for nearly a month. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET as the Pirates try to stop a skid that followed a three-game sweep in Atlanta.
That is why dodgers vs pirates is drawing attention now. The Dodgers arrive with a 42-24 record, a National League West lead and the kind of numbers that make every matchup feel heavier: 345 runs scored, 212 allowed and a plus-133 run differential, all while their pitching staff leads MLB in WHIP, opponent batting average and ERA. Shohei Ohtani adds another layer, entering first in the NL in OPS at.939 with 11 home runs and a.302 average, then going 19 for 43 over his last 10 games with three homers and a 1.234 OPS.
Skenes has spent the last month chasing the form that made him one of the most difficult pitchers in the majors to touch. He last won on May 12 against Colorado, when he threw eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and lowered his ERA to 1.98 while moving to 6-2. Since then, he has not won again. Over his four starts since that afternoon, he has three losses and one no-decision, and his ERA has climbed to 3.09 from that 1.98 peak.
The blunt numbers show why the Pirates are leaning so hard on him. In his last 20 innings, Skenes has given up 25 hits, six walks and 11 earned runs, and his most recent outing came in an 11-9 loss to the Houston Astros last Wednesday. PiratesOnSI.com noted that he got ahead of hitters on the first pitch at a 52% rate in that start, but the fastball that usually carries him was put in play 18 times over his last four outings, with nine of those balls turning into hits and 11 producing hard contact. SI.com also pointed to diminished vertical break on his fastball during his start in Toronto over Memorial Day weekend, when he yielded nine hits and four earned runs in five innings.
That leaves Tuesday as more than a routine series opener. The Pirates are asking Skenes to match a Dodgers lineup and staff that have been among baseball’s best, because anything less puts them in immediate trouble after the Atlanta sweep. Eric Lauer is scheduled to start for Los Angeles and enters at 2-5 with a 5.74 ERA, while Jared Jones is set for Wednesday against Ohtani and Mitch Keller is slated for Thursday against Justin Wrobleski. For Pittsburgh, the series may turn on whether Skenes can finally stop the slide and give the club the opening it needs.
